The Austrian Recovery and Resilience Plan was submitted to the European Commission on April 14th. Large parts of the RRP were already presented in last year’s governmental program (2020-2024).
With an overall volume of € 4.5bn, equaling 1.2% of Austrian’s GDP (2020), we find that Austria’s recovery plan (RRP) achieves a green spending share of 34% (below the EU’s 37% benchmark) and no measures have a negative impact. Trade unions, social partners and environmental groups have criticized the lack of consultancy and transparency in the development process of the RRP.
The government of Belgium published the final version of its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) on April 30th 2021. The European Commission has adopted a positive assessment of Belgium's recovery and resilience plan on June 23rd. Belgium is set to receive a total of €5.9bn through the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF).
Our analysis shows that overall, the investments envisaged by Belgium can make a very positive contribution to the green transition.
A broad draft plan was presented on 30th of October. A second draft was sent to the Commission on 20 January, but the Government only plans to make available a new third draft publicly available, which is due at the end of February.
The Bulgarian RRP was developed by an inter-ministerial working group. The plan was presented at the end of October for a public consultation. It is still unclear how the results of the public consultation are integrated into the amendment of the draft plan. Our full analysis shows that Bulgaria's draft RRP nonetheless makes a positive contribution to the green transition.
In May 2021, after a contentious process, the Czech government adopted the national Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP), with significant changes relative to previously released drafts. Throughout the process, civil society actors have criticized the lack of opportunities for effective participation.
Our analysis shows that the measures included in the plan, with investments of €7.9bn, can make a positive contribution to the green transition, though there are several specific shortfalls.
On March 5, the Estonian government published the planned allocation of recovery funds through the EU Recovery Facility to different measures, along with rather brief and general descriptions of the measures, but not a full Recovery and Resilience Plan. An updated version of this overview was released in May 2021. A week of public consultations for selected measures that took place in March 2021 only provided little additional information.
Overall, we find that the planned measures, with investments of €1.0bn (4% of Estonia’s GDP (2019)), can make a positive contribution to the green transition, though more information on the specific implementation of the measures will be necessary for a final assessment.
The government published a draft version for the RRP ("Sustainable Growth Programme") on 15/03/21, but aims to publish a final version at the end of April. According to the plan, 50% of the funds will be allocated to support the green transition. There will be no additional big economic stimulus package apart from this RRP-package using the RRF money.
The RRP is embedded in an overall progressive and green strategy for the country's future. Overall, our analysis finds that Finland’s recovery measures have the potential to make a very positive contribution to the green transition.
In September 2020, France presented a €100bn domestiv recovery package (called 'France Relance'). The final Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) for EU funding was presented on 27 April 2021.
Overall, the French programme makes a moderate contribution to the transition towards a climate neutral economy, achieving a green spending share of just 19% according to our analysis. The analysis of the RRP in the context of the EU Recovery Facility shows a green spending share of 29%, below the EU’s 37% benchmark.
Germany presented a €130bn domestic recovery package in the summer of 2020, the first EU state to do so. In December 2020, the government published a draft RRP, which mostly includes measures that were already included in the previous domestic recovery package. In January 2021, the European Commission criticized the government for a lack of additional ambition especially with regards to reforms in its draft RRP. On April 27, Germany presented its final RRP.
Overall, the German programme makes a moderate contribution to the transition towards a climate neutral economy, achieving a green spending share of just 21% according to our analysis. Furthermore, it is problematic that the German government seeks to simply refinance previously planned measures through its RRP, rather than using it to enable additional projects and reforms, with only around one third of the RRP's funds being used to finance new projects.
The Greek Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) was officially submitted to the European Commission on 27 April 2021, but only a summary version has been released to the public. The government's high level priorities were released on 25 November 2020 and subject to a public consultation until 20 December 2020.
Although the full RRP submitted to the European Commission has not been fully disclosed, the publicly available information includes both positive elements for the green transition and some worrying investment plans.
The final Recovery and Resilience Plan was submitted to the Commission on the 11th of May 2021, and officially published only on the 17th of May.
Civil society actors criticized that the process around the development of the plan was very opaque, lacking transparency. Overall, we find that the Hungarian recovery plan (RRP) achieves a green spending share of 37% (equal to the EU’s benchmark). The Plan includes a number of good measures e.g. for increasing the share of renewable energy in final energy consumption. However, the Hungarian RRF does not adequately support energy efficiency in the building sector. While the plan looks strong on climate-spending, the positive impact of the green investments set out will depend heavily on the funds being effectively disbursed in line with principles of good governance and to those entities who are best capable of delivering the respective services in the public interest.
The draft recovery plan was published on January 27th, with a public consultation now running until the 9th of March.
Our full analysis shows that the measures included in Latvia's draft RRP make a moderate contribution to the green transition, falling short on ambition overall.
After completing a consultation on the draft originally presented on February 26, 2021, the Polish government submitted its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) to the Commission on April 30, 2021, while at the same time requesting another month for additional modifications before the European Commission launches its official assessment.
Our analysis shows that overall, the investments envisaged by the plan can make a positive contribution to the green transition. However, while the RRP includes measures that have the potential to fast-track and scale-up decarbonization efforts, the lack of detail and the lack of tangible targets attached to the measures proposed make it impossible to say whether the plan will be able to fully realize that potential and to what extent it will contribute to the EU climate policy targets.
Portugal, which currently holds the rotating EU Presidency, was one of the first EU countries to submit its draft RRP to the Commission, in October 2020. These recovery measures are complemented by a domestic Investment Program, which also draws on the EU's long-term budget. An updated version of the plan was presented in February 2021, and the final RRP submitted in April 2021.
Overall, Portugal’s recovery measures have the potential to make a positive contribution to the green transition depending on their implementation. Positive measures include investments into industrial decarbonization, public transport, and energy efficiency. At the same time, the plan includes some problematic investments, especially in road infrastructure, and has been criticized for this by the European Commission. Lastly, it includes many measures whose climate mitigation effect cannot yet be assessed and depends on their implementation, such as investments into new housing projects and industrial development. Notably, the draft RRP does not offer many concrete links between its projects and the broader agenda of the 2030 National Investment Plan or wider climate policy goals.
A first draft of the Plan was published in November 2020 and is currently being revised. The second version of the Plan was published in March 2021. The public debate around the Plan, launched on March 19th, has been scarce.
Overall, Romania’s recovery measures make a positive contribution to the green transition, although the ultimate contribution of the recovery measures cannot yet be fully assessed as public versions of the RRP lack details on the design of specific recovery measures beyond the overarching elements of the plan.
The first complete draft of Slovakia’s Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) was published on 8 March 2021, and the final RRP was submitted to the European Commission on 29 April 2021.
Overall, we find that the measures included in the draft plan, with investments equaling 6.5% of Slovakia’s GDP (2019), are likely to make a positive contribution to the green transition. The Slovak RRP includes a “Green Economy” category with five components, which include many promising measures, such as investments in energy efficiency, renewable energies, and industry decarbonization. However, there are still areas of concerns, such as support for fossil gas boilers included in the energy efficiency pillar. Furthermore, while the plan’s exclusion of support for fossil power generation is in line with EU green transition requirements, the €220m allocated to renewable energy generation are insufficient to fully exploit the potential of renewables for a green recovery, especially after years of legal restrictions on the expansion of renewables. The actual effect of the plan thus depends on whether its implementation will be accompanied by other measures, and whether there will be additional reforms to align national planning with the target of climate neutrality by 2050. Lastly, given Slovakia’s relatively poor track record in using EU funds, ensuring the outlined measures are implemented successfully may be a challenge in itself.
The Slovenian government presented its recovery plan (RRP) for the €2.5bn in grants and loans that it will receive through the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) at the end of April 2021. Civil society actors and the public had little opportunity to participate in the development of the plan.
Our analysis shows that most measures in the RRP do not contribute to a greener transition in the long run. The explanation in the plan on avoiding significant harm is perceived as weak. The plan includes some positive measures, for instance on energy efficiency and railways, but these are undermined by problematic measures in other areas.
The government presented ten priorities for its recovery plan in October 2020. A full recovery plan has been published on 13.04.21.
Overall, we find that the components included in the draft plan, with investments totaling €69.5bn, equaling 6.2% of Spain’s GDP (2020), will make a positive contribution to the green transition. However, despite the inclusion of many positive investment and reform priorities in the plan, the information provided on which exact measures will receive specific funding amounts is often insufficient for a fully comprehensive assessment. All in all, the RRP sets positive benchmarks through the connection of investments and reforms such as the introduction of more ambitious energy transition targets enabled through recovery funding, as well as with the support of specific flagship projects as part of the green transition, such as battery manufacturing.
The Irish government opened a public consultation on its recovery plan on February 2nd, but did not provide any information on the government's own priorities or plans for using the funds.
The final Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) was presented by Prime Minister Draghi on 27 April 2021, after disagreements over an earlier version of the plan led to the dissolution of the previous government.
Overall, Italy’s recovery measures fall short of the green transition potential of the recovery funds available. While the plan includes investments into measures that are relevant to the green transition, there is a significant imbalance in the allocation of funds between sectors and activities. Many of the green investments in the plan are only likely to bring about an incremental shift towards a climate neutral economy and look fairly insignificant relative to the needs of an economy-wide transition to climate neutrality.
No documents have been made public yet. With national elections scheduled for March 17th, it is highly likely that a new government will have to be formed before any documents will be released.