After many delays and mounting calls from businesses as well as civil society organizations to increase the transparency of the process, the Polish government on February 26, 2021 presented a draft of its National Recovery and Resilience Plan (RRP) for the €23.9bn in grants that it will receive through the EU Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF). Our analysis shows that overall, the investments envisaged by the plan can make a positive contribution to the green transition. However, while the draft RRP includes measures that have the potential to fast-track and scale-up decarbonization efforts, the lack of detail and the lack of tangible targets attached to the measures proposed make it impossible to say whether the plan will be able to fully realize that potential.
We find that Poland’s draft recovery plan achieves a green spending share of 18%, below the EU’s 37% climate spending benchmark. At the same time, 38% of the spending may have a positive or negative impact on the green transition depending on the implementation of the relevant measures, illustrating the importance of further scrutiny during the further planning, review and implementation of the recovery measures. Importantly, this uncertainty applies to several key green transition-related measures proposed in the plan. The government itself claims that the plan achieves a climate share of 38%. Our calculation of the green spending share aims to mirror the approach used for the official assessment of national recovery plans (find more information here).
*Our analysis covers the draft Recovery and Resilience Plan that was released in February 2021. The report was written by Zofia Wetmanska (WiseEuropa) and Felix Heilmann (E3G). We are grateful to Karolina Marszał and Joanna Fabiszewska (WiseEuropa) as well as Johanna Lehne (E3G) for supporting the review process.
Poland’s draft recovery plan includes significant support measures for the offshore wind industry that focus in particular on the development of local content. Specifically, the plan allocates €437m to supporting the development of port infrastructure and supply chains, with the aim of installing 2.6 GW offshore wind electricity generation capacity.
The draft recovery plan does not foresee a revision of national strategic documents to align them with the EU’s 2030 and 2050 climate targets and does not envisage the implementation of key frameworks such as the long-term decarbonization strategy or the long-term renovation strategy. The few legislative changes that are included in the document are not sufficient to fast-track the green transition (e.g. lack of support for energy communities) or unlock necessary investments in key sectors (e.g. no investment in onshore wind electricity generation). Investments described in the plan rarely include specific (climate) targets, conditionalities or performance indicators for individual support measures, making it difficult to see how progress will be monitored.
The draft recovery plan offers substantial support for the rail sector, with total investments of €2.5bn. However, none of the measures envisaged support the electrification of the sector or the development of zero-emissions rail transport in cities.